Evidence-based decision making and covid-19: what a posteriori probability distributions speak What Posterior Probabilities Reveal

Abstract

Background: In the absence of any pharmaceutical interventions, the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is based on public health measures. The present study fosters evidence-based decision making by estimating various “a posteriori probability distributions" from COVID-19 patients. 

Methods: In this retrospective observational study, 987 RT-PCR positive COVID-19 patients from SMS Medical College, Jaipur, India, were enrolled after approval of the institutional ethics committee. The data regarding age, gender, and outcome were collected. The univariate and bivariate distributions of COVID-19 cases with respect to age, gender, and outcome were estimated. The age distribution of COVID-19 cases was compared with the general population's age distribution using the goodness of fit c² test. The independence of attributes in bivariate distributions was evaluated using the chi-square test for independence.

Results: The age group ‘25-29’ has shown highest probability of COVID-19 cases (P [25-29] = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.12- 0.16). The men (P [Male] = 0.62, 95%CI: 0.59-0.65) were dominant sufferers. The most common outcome was recovery (P [Recovered] = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.76-0.81) followed by admitted cases (P [Active]= 0.13, 95%CI: 0.11-0.15) and death (P [Death] = 0.08, 95%CI: 0.06-0.10). The age distribution of COVID-19 cases differs significantly from the age distribution of the general population (c²  =399.04, P < 0.001). The bivariate distribution of COVID-19 across age and outcome was not independent (c² =106.21, df = 32, P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The knowledge of disease frequency patterns helps in the optimum allocation of limited resources and manpower. The study provides information to various epidemiological models for further analysis.